Get Ready for a Second Clinton Presidency
|I've been watching the debates and following the polls and the fund raising and thinking about this for a while and...I'm not seeing how Hillary Clinton looses the presidential race. (Note: This is not an endorsement, just my sense of things at the present time.)|
A lot of people don't want to believe that but, if you can convince me otherwise, please do.
First of all, I realize that we are a long way from the first primary (although they get closer every day, both due to the natural passage of time and the irrational, pig-headed way that states keep moving up their primaries - when's Iowa? Tomorrow?) and even farther from the general election (the counter at the top of this page keeps me painfully aware of how long we have until the Bush Presidency ends). However, unless she makes some sort of huge mistake like say, denying global warming or - God forbid - show more cleavage, she's gonna win the primary. She's got the money, the network, and most importantly she feels inevitable. She's like a glacier. (I know I'm not the first person to compare her to ice but possibly in this context.)
Secondly, I just can't see any Republican winning the general election, even against her. Karl Rove is right, Clinton has incredibly high negatives. People know her and a lot of them already don't like her and that kind of thing is hard to change. But, Bush has poisoned people's minds against the Republican Party. Assuming that in the general election Red states go Red and Blue states go Blue, the swing states will pull strongly to the Democrat - any Democrat. A Republican might "win" Florida (if you know what I'm saying - wink wink), but Pennsylvania will go to the Democrat, and there is no way in hell that Republicans will win Ohio. The Republican Party has all but salted the earth for themselves in that (former) swing state.
Additionally, the group of jokers the Republicans have to choose from will not inspire a lot of people. Guiliani is a joke and will be torn to shreds by his past and he won't put New York into serious play for Republicans, sorry fellas; Romney = slimy (and it shows); I liked Huckabee until he said he didn't believe in evolution - thanks for playing; McCain is by far their best candidate - and the Republicans hate him. Every single other Republican candidate is a complete joke. What about the non-candidates who will come in and save the day? Newt Gingrich? Three divorces and people hate him almost as much as they hate Hillary. Fred Thompson? When the first thing that comes out about you is how lazy you are, that doesn't bode well - especially following the act of our current Commander-in-Chief.
I know that Democrats could normally lose a one-person race, but Republicans will be demoralized and won't volunteer or vote in as high numbers as they have in the past and Democrats will be energized by the end (finally) of the Bush Administration and will volunteer and vote.
So, as long as she doesn't do something crazy during the general election like, say, officiate at a Gay marriage between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Kim Jong-Il...while eating a baby - she's gonna be a lock. So, get used to it.
This scenario, of course, does not take into account a serious third party candidate (like say from Unity '08). If that happens and it is for real, that could shake some things up. I'm for a third party candidacy just on principle but it will still depend on who the actual candidate is. So, despite the fact that I am already resigned to Clinton winning, I think it will be a long time before I decide who I will be supporting in 2008. Besides, when I get bored I make up my own movies. I have a very short attention span.