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Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Wonkette Takes Day Off From Being Funny to Scare the $#!# out of Us

I read Wonkette to be amused by pithy, vulgar humor. Not to be terrified.

Two stories today:

1) The housing market is going to collapse and spark a recession.

2) We will be at war with Iran within the month.

Thanks! I'll be stuffing my mattress with cash while simultaneously whizzing my pants.

Comments on "Wonkette Takes Day Off From Being Funny to Scare the $#!# out of Us"

 

Blogger JPTERP said ... (11:01 PM) : 

The Housing Market:
Prices will drop, but I don't see the D.C. market tanking (e.g. I wouldn't be surprised to see 20-30% losses off peak values--but I don't see 50-60% losses).

When the sales market slows, the rental market typically picks up. I can see the big time investors flipping a number of condo developments to apartment buildings. I do think smaller scale investors might take a pretty big hit though. Btw, the commercial real estate market is still pretty solid.

Of course I could be completely off-the-mark.

As far as Iran goes, when the Bush administration says that they are dedicated to negotiations, I actually take Bush at his word.

The prospect of a wider war in the Middle East would be a strategic disaster right now--it would ensure failure in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Plus I get the sense that a war with Iran would be politically disasterous for Bush. Even if Iranians were alleged to have "provoked" an attack--I suspect many Americans would be very skeptical.

I see these naval deployments--and the way that the news has been leaked--as a gambit to leverage the Iranians in negotiations. The U.S. did something very similar to this in the mid-90s with North Korea. This White House would be embarrased to admit taking a page from the Clinton playbook, but I suspect that that is exactly what's happening.

The long and short--the long term consequences of the Bush administrations incompetence worry me much more than any near-term threat.

 

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