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Monday, October 16, 2006

November Surprise to Backfire?

The verdict in Saddam Hussein's trial has been postponed until November 5th.

Some have suggested that this is the "November surprise" that Republicans will be counting on to limit their losses on election day.

I am having a hard time figuring out how this will be good for Republicans.

Sure, they can point at the trial and say, "Look, justice is being done. Freedom on the march, etc., etc." However, if Hussein is convicted (which he will be) and sentenced to hang (which he will be), a whole lot of Sunnis will be up in arms (literally). Sunni on Shia (or even Kurd) violence will spike (as will reprisals), attacks on American troops will increase, and there will likely be mass Sunni pro-Saddam demonstrations in the streets of Iraq. This will certainly last until November 7th, and none of it portends well for the Administration or the Republicans that support them.

Back to the drawing board, I guess.

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